Post Truth- Evan Davis

Evan's lecture at the Royal Geographic Society was an outlook on how half-truths and- to put it frankly- bullshit influence politics. This was a particularly topical analysis, which heavily focussed on rise of populism in 2016.

The types of bullshit
There are 4 types of bullshit that commonly occur in the media and politics:

1. Bullshitting a question
• This is where a politician will use synonyms to reword the source of the question, instead of directly answering it.
2. Rewording a truth
• A proven truth is rephrased to appear to mean something else
3. Accrediting an unproven idea
• A hypothesis is treated as truth- a good example is the Chilcot Report about the Iraq invasion. It was discovered that the UK intelligence services had no proof that Saddam Hussein had the weapons of mass destruction, it was hypothetical

In short, Bullshit can be defined as:

"deceptive misrepresentation, short of lying, especially by pretentious word or deed, of somebody's own thoughts, feelings, or attitudes"

Why should we worry about bullshit- economics

Although it is generally important that our new sources and government are credible, it can have a much larger impact on global systems.

Bullshit actually affects markets, which gets economists worried. Evan used the example of the sale of a second hand car to illustrate the influence of bullshit. 

Imagine you are buying a second hand car. There are a choice of 2 dealers: John, who claims his mother drove this car, and took good care of it; and Paul, who says he only used it to commute to the city. Who are you most likely to buy from?

In reality, some people are just as likely to purchase from either of them. Why? Because you assume they are both bullshitting in order to sell you the car. You would only look at the specs, and make a call on that. However, some people would buy into the stories, and the mothers car seems a more appealing investment.

In rational economics, there is no bullshit, because no one believes it. What worries economists, is the fact that there is bullshit. It means that someone is stupid: either for believing the waffle, or for thinking that someone will. And stupid people are unpredictable, making markets more volatile.

Why do we bullshit?

Bullshit is more about reading in between the lines, than accepting what is said outright.

1. Informative- it tells you about relationships, and behaviour
• You are having dinner at a friends house, and they have baked a gooseberry tart. It's obviously overdone when they take it out, and you have the choice of either commenting on it, or ignoring it. By commenting on it, it shows you are close friends, and trust they will not be upset by your remark. By ignoring it, you seem polite and well brought up.
• Donald Trump used this tactic to win the presidential race. The statistics and facts he was coming up with were obviously not true- it would be impossible to get Mexico to fund a border wall. His hyperbole showed more about him than Clinton's carefully crafted, politically correct speeches did about her. The population took him seriously, but not literally. The error was that the opposition did neither.
2. To fit in- we assume everyone lies, so we need to bullshit too in order to maintain competitiveness.
• Building company A says they can build a roof extension in 3 months. Based on past experience, you assume all builders lie, and add an extra 3 months, raising the finishing time to 6 months. Now, building company B is honest, and say it could take 6 months. Going by your preconceptions, it will take 9 months. Company B has lost out, because honesty stopped it being competitive.
3. Psychological foibles
• Based on our car example earlier, some people have foibles that make them susceptible to bullshit. On occasion, they can be exploited.
• In the USA, they did an experiment to test the extent to which this can affect markets. They released 3 rounds of an identical catalogue, where the only difference was that some prices were marked as .99, some to the nearest dollar, and some at .59. You would expect the .59 to sell more, but that wasn't the case- .99 sold nearly 8% more. Why? .59 appears to be more expensive than the previous dollar, but .99 seems to be a saving

How worried should we be of bullshit?

It depends on the timescale. Evan was very optimistic, saying that the truth always prevails, and that the public always see through the waffle. However, sometimes it can take too long.

McCarthy lead the Red Scare in the USA for 9 years, in which countless lives, jobs, and relationships were decimated. Although he was censured by the rest of the Senate, it took nearly decade.

The same happened with Brexit. It took the whole referendum to realise that there was no £350 million.

Another worry is how it feeds division. When there is an enemy, we look for what we want to see. When there is bullshit as well, we believe it, and it feeds the hatred.

What can we do about bullshit?

• Read credible news sources
• Erase divisions- learn to understand the other side, instead of just belittling their views.
• Be open minded- by hating someone, you become susceptible.
• If you hate Donald Trump, you won't believe anything he says. However, you will easily accept any slander against him- making you susceptible to the bullshit.
• Be frank with each other- over time, we can see through the PR.